Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/22-24):
Gary Trauner (D): 44 (42)
Cynthia Lummis (R): 43 (42)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Gary Trauner keeps making a real race of this in the deep red state of Wyoming. Moving from a tie to a one-point lead shouldn’t be taken as anything but statistical noise, but it’s pretty clear this race survived Palinmania intact and is going to go down to the wire.
There’s one note of caution when viewing this poll, though: if you look deep in the crosstabs, you’ll see that 22% of Republicans are still undecided (compared with only 2% of Democrats and 9% of Independents). If the majority of those undecided Republicans break at the last minute for Lummis, she wins. (However, in a year as weird as this, with the Republican brand a smoldering radioactive heap of wreckage, I suppose that’s not a done deal.)
The rest of the poll reflects Wyoming’s Republican lean: McCain leads Obama 58-35, while in the two Senate races (one special, one regular, both with GOP incumbents) Mike Enzi leads Chris Rothfuss 61-34 and John Barasso leads Nick Carter 57-36.
…or does this poll under-sample Republicans? I think Republicans make up over 60% of the state, but only 48% of the poll.
Do the Wyoming Independents lean more towards the Republicans?
Almost all republicans who are going to break against us.
Why oh why couldn’t Governor Freudenthal run for Senate… he would have beaten Barrasso handily. Arggg… missed opportunity.
Very similarly to the way he’s been polling dead even or +1 against Lummis consistently this year.
Also, I’m back in town.
And this is the new Race of the Day on IRC!
Isn’t this the third poll to show Trauner ahead or tied?`
There will be no McCain cattails, cuz Obama has already won by the time the polls close in WY.